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With U.S. markets closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and due for a shorter Black Friday trading session, currencies are trading narrowly as liquidity is expected to remain thin. The bank will "then begin its first rate hike in Q2 2024 if wage growth continues to accelerate next year". The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 2.9% year-on-year in October, government data showed on Friday, against 3.0% expected by economists in a Reuters poll. Separate data showed German business morale improved for a third straight month in November. Sterling rose for a second consecutive day, up 0.2% to $1.2559, after data showed on Thursday that British companies returned to growth in November, fuelling hopes Britain will avoid a recession.

Persons: Marcos Brindicci, Jefferies, Mohit Kumar, Sterling, Ankur Banerjee, Joice Alves, Jan Harvey, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, U.S, Federal, Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, ING, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, SINGAPORE, Germany, Singapore, London

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2023. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped further to a two-month low on Friday and was last at 4.4082%. Most megacap stocks edged higher in premarket trading, with Amazon.com (AMZN.O) and Nvidia (NVDA.O) up 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. On the economic data front, markets will monitor the housing starts data for October, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 93 points, or 0.27%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 10.75 points, or 0.24%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 6.5 points, or 0.04%.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Russell, Mohit Kumar, Austan Goolsbee, Rick Wilmer, Shristi Achar, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Materials, Jefferies, Chicago Fed, Dow e, Old Navy, ChargePoint Holdings, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, Bengaluru

☆ Futures edge up on rate cut hopes; Fed speakers awaited
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. Other speakers include voting members such as Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook, New York Fed President John Williams and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. Walt Disney (DIS.N), Instacart (CART.O) and Biogen (BIIB.O) are among major companies reporting earnings this week. 403 companies in the S&P 500 have reported profits to date in the third quarter, with 81.6% surpassing analyst estimates, per LSEG data. ET, Dow e-minis were up 28 points, or 0.08%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 8.5 points, or 0.19%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 41.5 points, or 0.27%.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mohit Kumar, Jerome Powell, Lisa Cook, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Walt Disney, Amruta Khandekar, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Treasury, Jefferies, Federal Reserve, Lisa Cook , New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Tesla, Reuters, University of, Dow e, PDD Holdings, Baidu, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, Lisa Cook , New, Berlin, Beijing

☆ Priced for earnings recession, European equities could weather storm
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

After a long period of scepticism towards European equities, some investors and analysts are finding cause for optimism. European companies are expected to enter their first earnings recession - two consecutive quarters of falling earnings - since 2020. But European stocks are better priced for a recession than their U.S. counterparts, said Matthew McLennan, co-head of First Eagle’s Global Value team. First Eagle's McLennan said the weaker euro in part supported the outlook for European equities. "There's some possibility that European equities, by both their valuation and their currency valuation, could do better than U.S. equities over a period of time".

Persons: Jefferies, Mohit Kumar, LSEG, Matthew McLennan, Goldman Sachs, Oliver Collin, Europe's, Collin, LVMH, Ayesha Akbar, Eagle's McLennan, Joice Alves, Mark Potter Organizations: Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, U.S, drugmaker Novo Nordisk, Fidelity, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Silicon, Germany, U.S

Oct 9 (Reuters) - Fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East are threatening more volatility for investors after a painful stretch in U.S. markets. Investors were on guard for the potential of the conflict spreading to embroil other countries, including Iran, and a continued spike in oil prices. Prices for gold, a popular destination for investors during uncertain times, were up 1.2% at $1,854.10 per ounce. Among those is the potential of a rebound in oil prices that could weigh on U.S. economic growth and endanger the so-called soft landing narrative that has helped boost stocks this year. “The worst-case scenario from a geopolitical risk perspective would be a full-scale confrontation between Israel and Iran,” said Tina Fordham, geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight.

Persons: Brent, ”, Mohit Kumar, Tina Fordham, Paul Nolte, Emmanuel Cau, Althea Spinozzi, Naomi Rovnick, Lewis Krauskopf, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Noel Randewich, Marc Jones, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Jefferies, Fordham Global Foresight, Federal Reserve, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Barclays, Mobileye, Intel, Solaredge Technologies, East, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Gaza, Iran, Europe, London, Israel, United States, Germany

Oct 9 (Reuters) - Fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East are threatening more volatility for investors after a painful stretch in U.S. markets. Investors were on guard for the potential of the conflict spreading to embroil other countries, including Iran, and a continued spike in oil prices. Prices for gold, a popular destination for investors during uncertain times, were up 0.9% at $1,849.40 per ounce. Among those is a potential rebound in oil prices that could weigh on U.S. economic growth and endanger the so-called soft landing narrative that has helped boost stocks this year. “The worst-case scenario from a geopolitical risk perspective would be a full-scale confrontation between Israel and Iran,” said Tina Fordham, geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight.

Persons: Brent, ”, Mohit Kumar, Tina Fordham, Paul Nolte, Murphy, Emmanuel Cau, Althea Spinozzi, Naomi Rovnick, Lewis Krauskopf, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Marc Jones, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Jefferies, Fordham Global Foresight, Federal Reserve, Sylvest Wealth Management, Treasury, Barclays, Mobileye, Intel, Solaredge Technologies, East, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Gaza, Iran, Europe, London, Israel, United States, Germany

☆ Middle East violence rattles markets, oil jumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

MARKET REACTION:- Oil prices surged, with Brent crude trading at $87.25 a barrel - up over 3% on the day. COMMENTS:MOHIT KUMAR, CHIEF EUROPE ECONOMIST, JEFFERIES, LONDON:“The coming days are likely to be driven by geopolitical risks, rather than fundamentals. “Second, OPEC countries do have spare capacity that they restrict willingly to maintain oil price at above $80 (per barrel), but they don’t necessarily think of tripling oil prices – which would only accelerate the energy transition. “This being said, potential retaliation against Tehran is a serious upside risk for oil prices. We will keep an eye on developments, but don’t speculate on a full-blast rise in oil prices for now.”

Persons: Mohammed Salem, Israel’s shekel, MOHIT KUMAR, JEFFERIES, ”, ” CHRIS BEAUCHAMP, Brent, WTI, CAROL KONG, JPY, ” MICHAEL HEWSON, ALVIN TAN, Blinken, “, ” IPEK OZKARDESKAYA, Israel Organizations: Oil, REUTERS, Brent, U.S, Treasury, British Airways, LONDON, Russo, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF, CMC, U.S ., OF, OF ASIA FX, RBS, SWISSQUOTE BANK Locations: Israel, Gaza, Egypt, Yom, EUROPE, Iran, Ukrainian, SYDNEY, Asia, Japan, Straits, Hormuz, OF ASIA, ” “, GENEVA, OPEC, U.S, Tehran

A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. Investors await August consumer prices data, due on Wednesday, and producer prices scheduled on Thursday, followed by the Fed's policy decision on Sept. 20. A recent uptick in oil prices and strong economic data have fueled concerns over stubborn inflation, clouding the outlook for an end to U.S. monetary tightening. Investors will also monitor the European Central Bank's policy decision on Thursday, where it is seen holding rates after nine consecutive hikes. ET, Dow e-minis were down 48 points, or 0.14%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 9 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 27.5 points, or 0.18%.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Wall, Morgan Stanley, BoE, Mohit Kumar, Ankika Biswas, Shristi, Arun Koyyur, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Kappa, Dow, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Investors, Fed, ECB, Jefferies, Dow e, Oracle, Paramount Global, Amusements, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Bengaluru

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. All eyes will be squarely on the July U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, with a Reuters poll of economists estimating payrolls increased by 200,000 jobs last month, after having risen 209,000 in June, showing labor market conditions remain tight. "Today's NFP data would be important for setting the market tone for the coming weeks," Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar said. ET, Dow e-minis were up 10 points, or 0.03%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 8.5 points, or 0.19%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 44.25 points, or 0.29%.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Amazon's, nonfarm, Jefferies, Mohit Kumar, Stocks, DraftKings, Shubham Batra, Bansari, Savio D'Souza, Shounak Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Apple Futures, Dow, Nasdaq, Amazon.com, Microsoft, Labor Department, Fitch, AAA, Dow e, Horizon Therapeutics, Sports, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, States, Bengaluru

☆ Dollar ekes out gain after Fed hike hint; yen slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed's policy decision snapped a string of 10 consecutive rate hikes, but the projections, or dot plot, showed policymakers expect two more increases by the end of 2023. The euro was last flat versus the dollar at $1.0841 after touching a four-week high of $1.0865 on Wednesday. "Dollar-yen is at year highs and markets are increasingly beginning to talk about whether a further rise could trigger the BoJ to verbally and also effectually intervene in the FX market," Lomholt added. Japan's top government spokesperson said on Thursday that volatile currency market moves were undesirable and the authorities would take "appropriate" action as needed. The kiwi dollar sank 0.6% to $0.6172 after data showed New Zealand's economy slipped into a technical recession in the first quarter, putting further rate hikes in doubt.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Fed, Mohit Kumar, Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt, Lomholt, Sim Moh Siong, Samuel Indyk, Rocky Swift, Edmund Klamann, Sohini Goswami, Shweta Agarwal Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Jefferies, Bank of Japan, Money, ECB, Danske Bank, The Bank of, FX, People's Bank of China, Singapore, Thomson Locations: The Bank of Japan

☆ Dollar gains after Fed hike hint; yen tumbles
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. dollar strengthened on Thursday after the Federal Reserve left borrowing costs unchanged but signaled further rate hikes to come as attention turned to the European Central Bank policy announcement later in the day. The Fed's policy decision snapped a string of 10 consecutive rate hikes, but the projections, or dot plot, showed policymakers expect two more increases by the end of 2023. The market's attention is now turning to other central bank decisions late this week, with the ECB policy announcement on Thursday before the Bank of Japan on Friday. "Dollar-yen is at year highs and markets are increasingly beginning to talk about whether a further rise could trigger the BoJ to verbally and also effectually intervene in the FX market," Lomholt added. Japan's top government spokesperson said on Thursday that volatile currency market moves were undesirable and the authorities would take "appropriate" action as needed.

Persons: Powell, Fed, Mohit Kumar, Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt, Lomholt Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Jefferies, Bank of Japan, Money, ECB, Danske Bank, The Bank of, FX Locations: The Bank of Japan

☆ Asia shares near month high ahead of central bank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, June 12 (Reuters) - Asian shares started tentatively on Monday as investors braced for central bank meetings from Europe, Japan and the United States this week, along with U.S. inflation data that will likely influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. China stocks (.SSEC) eased 0.01%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) opened up 0.3%. Markets are pricing for a 71% probability the U.S. central bank will stand pat when it meets on June 13-14, according to CME FedWatch tool. While doubts persist among investors which path the Fed will take this week, they are more certain the European Central Bank, which meets on Thursday, will raise rates and remain hawkish. The yen eased 0.01% to 139.39 per dollar ahead of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy meeting on Friday.

Persons: Hong, HSI, Lagarde, Mohit Kumar, Kumar, Sterling, Brent, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Federal, Japan's Nikkei, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Citi, European Central Bank, Jefferies, ECB, Bank of Japan's, Reuters, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Europe, Japan, United States, Asia, Pacific, China, Turkish

☆ Futures muted as bond yields rise on rate jitters
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures up: Dow 0.01%, S&P 0.06%, Nasdaq 0.09%June 8 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were largely flat on Thursday as government bond yields hovered near recent highs on worries that major central banks could keep raising interest rates. The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) closed lower on Wednesday, with megacap stocks leading declines as U.S. bond yields rose after the Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised markets with an interest rate hike. The 2-year Treasury yield , which tends to move in step with short-term rate expectations, rose for a third day to 4.56%, as investors await the Federal Reserve meet next week. Eventually we don't think the Fed will hike in July," Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar said. They see a 50% chance of a rate hike in July.

Persons: Jefferies, Mohit Kumar, Russell, Thierry Breton, Ryan Cohen, Zhu Jiang, Sruthi Shankar, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Bank of Canada, BoC, Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Treasury, Reserve, Traders, U.S . Labor Department, Dow e, Meta, Inc, GameStop Corp, Thomson Locations: U.S, KBW, China, Bengaluru

☆ Euro zone yields drop as Fed chair signals smaller hikes ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Prior to Powell's speech, markets had been pricing in a peak in interest rates at 5.05%, according to data from Refinitiv. Jefferies interest rate strategist Mohit Kumar said Powell's appearance on Wednesday was dovish compared to his last post-decision press conference. "The dovish element was his view that the terminal rates would be 'somewhat' higher than the September projections, while the market has been viewing terminal rates as substantially higher than the September dot plot of 4.4%," Kumar added. Germany's 10-year yield, the benchmark for the euro area, dropped 11 basis points (bps) to 1.839%. Italy's 10-year yield was down 15 bps to 3.74%, pushing the closely watched spread between Italian and German 10-year yields tighter by around 8 bps to 189 bps.

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